By Pavel Polityuk
KYIV (Reuters) -Ukraine has secured gas reserves to meet 80-90% of its winter demand and needs up to $1 billion of additional fuel to get through its fourth heating season since Russia invaded the country, industry officials and analysts say.
Russia has spent the past two years attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure to weaken its military and undermine civilian morale. The campaign has reduced domestic gas production and power generation dramatically, with Russian strikes continuing almost daily.
Ukraine has about 11 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas in storage, amounting to more than 80% of the government’s 13.2 bcm target, said Yurii Boiko, a supervisory board member at state-owned power grid operator Ukrenergo.
Ukrainian energy consultancy ExPro, however, put stocks at 12 bcm, or 90% of target.
TARGETS MAY NEED TO BE REVISED
That means 1-2 bcm will have to come from domestic production or be imported from other European countries, officials and analysts said. That would cost the country between $500 million and $1 billion, according to Reuters calculations based on current and last winter’s EU gas price.
Officials warn that further attacks on production or storage sites could force Ukraine to revise its targets. Last winter, blackouts lasted up to 18 hours a day in some areas.
“If gas infrastructure is damaged, we will have to look for costly resources to make up for the shortfall,” Boiko said.
Ukraine stored 12.8 bcm of gas ahead of last winter, which proved too little after Russian attacks damaged infrastructure, said Serhiy Makogon, former head of the Ukrainian gas transmission system.
“It brought the country to the brink of a gas blackout,” Makogon said. He estimates remaining gas import needs for the season at 1 bcm to 1.5 bcm, costing up to about $900 million.
Russian attacks cut Ukraine’s gas output by about 0.5 bcm last winter, said Oleksandr Kharchenko, director of the Kyiv-based Centre of Energy Studies. He said he would like to see gas stocks at 14 bcm for winter.
POLISH GAS SHIPMENTS ON THE RISE
Before the war, Ukraine produced about 55 million cubic metres (mcm) of gas per day, or up to 20 bcm a year. Current production figures are classified.
Ukraine mainly imports gas from Hungary, but shipments via Poland have been on the rise. Existing interconnectors allow Ukraine to import more than 60 mcm per day – more than enough to cover daily demand in case of an acute need.
Poland is working on doubling capacity on its link with Ukraine to 4 bcm per year by early 2026.
Ukraine also plans to import U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) via Germany, Greece, Lithuania and Poland.
Importing gas is becoming safer than stockpiling, given Russian attacks on production and storage facilities, said Andriy Kobolev, former CEO of state-run Naftogaz.
Ukraine has Europe’s largest underground storage facilities, with capacity of 30 bcm. Western companies stored up to 3 bcm of gas in Ukraine last year, but volumes fell to zero this year after Russian attacks intensified.
(Reporting by Pavel PolityukAdditional reporting by Marek Strzelecki in WarsawEditing by David Goodman)
