Gold falls as strong US jobs data dims prospects for December rate cut

By Pablo Sinha

(Reuters) -Gold prices fell on Thursday as investors digested the September U.S. jobs report, which showed stronger-than-expected employment figures and dampened prospects for a December rate cut. 

Spot gold fell 0.6% to $4,058.29 per ounce by 1:45 p.m. ET (1845 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.6% to $4,060 per ounce.    

The U.S. dollar firmed against most major currencies, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers. [USD/]

The closely-watched Labor Department report, delayed due to the government shutdown, showed that September nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000, more than double the estimated 50,000 gain.

“This (data) essentially confirms what the Fed discussed in October — a slowing yet stable jobs market. A December rate cut now appears increasingly unlikely,” adding pressure to gold, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Traders now see nearly a 40% chance for a rate cut next month. Gold, a non-yielding asset, tends to do well in low-interest-rate environments.

Due to the shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has cancelled the release of the October report, instead combining it with November’s figures. The combined report will be released on December 16, after the Fed’s next meeting.

Meanwhile, minutes from the Fed’s October meeting revealed on Wednesday that policymakers lowered interest rates despite warning that the move could heighten the risk of inflation and undermine public confidence in the central bank.

Gold, a traditional safe haven, has risen 55% this year, hitting a record high of $4,381.22 on October 20.

Despite recent consolidation, UBS raised its 2026 mid-year gold target price by $300 to $4,500 per ounce, on expectations of U.S. rate cuts, persistent geopolitical risks, and strong central bank and exchange-traded fund demand. 

Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.7% to $50.47 per ounce, platinum fell 2.3% to $1,510.70 and palladium fell 0.1% to $1,379.

(Reporting by Pablo Sinha in Bengaluru; Additional reporting by Sarah Qureshi; Editing by Alexander Smith and Alan Barona)

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