By Ankur Banerjee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar was weaker on Tuesday ahead of a slate of central bank meetings that will likely lead to a rate cut in the U.S. and as investors kept a wary eye on President Donald Trump’s Asia tour, hoping for a trade deal with China.
The yen strengthened more than 0.6% to 151.855 per U.S. dollar ahead of a Bank of Japan meeting this week where the central bank is expected to hold rates steady, but the focus will be on whether it provides clues on the timing of the next hike.
Comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent lifted the yen as he called for “sound monetary policy” during his meeting with Japanese counterpart Satsuki Katayama, in his latest swipe at the slow pace of interest rate hikes by the BOJ.
Investors were also weighing Trump’s meeting with Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi in Tokyo on Tuesday, where he welcomed her pledge to accelerate a military buildup and signed deals on trade and rare earths.
CHINA TRADE DEAL HOPES REMAIN INTACT
While early signs of easing trade tensions between the world’s top two economies led to a risk rally on Monday, with the dollar slipping against rivals, investors are apprehensive that any real Sino-U.S. deal may offer far less to celebrate.
The spotlight will be on the meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. “I’ve got a lot of respect for President Xi and I think we’re going to come away with a deal,” Trump told reporters on Air Force One before landing in Tokyo.
Chinese officials have so far been circumspect about trade talks with U.S. counterparts and have said little on the potential outcome.
Vasu Menon, managing director of investment strategy at OCBC, said it was possible there might not be a “perfect resolution or even a resolution in some cases, and the can could be kicked down the road to be addressed later.”
“When you have two economic superpowers with strong-headed leaders trying to work out a deal, one can imagine that it will not be a seamless affair,” he said.
But Menon added that if the two leaders are able to make some concrete progress, it may be enough to satisfy markets for now as investors seek silver linings to keep the bull-run on track.
The anticipation around the outcome of trade talks and an expected 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve have left the dollar on the back foot. The euro hit a one-week high of $1.1668 on Tuesday, while sterling last bought $1.3368, up 0.25% on the day.
The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six other units, eased 0.19% at 98.58, having dropped 0.15% in the previous session.
FED MEETING IN FOCUS
With a rate cut from the Fed priced in, markets will closely watch for any signs that the central bank may be preparing to wind down its quantitative tightening program.
Focus will also be on whether the central bank and Fed Chair Jerome Powell provide clarity on further rate cuts as the U.S. government shutdown continues, leaving policymakers without economic data. Traders are pricing in another cut in December.
“We do not expect formal guidance about the December meeting, but if Chair Powell is asked, he will likely be comfortable referencing the September dots, which imply a third cut in December,” said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. The Fed cut rates last month by 25 bps.
Over in Europe, the European Central Bank is all but certain to keep rates on hold again on Thursday as traders waver on whether it will resume easing next year.
The Australian dollar, often seen as a proxy for risk appetite, was 0.11% firmer at $0.6563, a two-week high. The New Zealand dollar inched higher to $0.5782.
(Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar Anantharaman and Jamie Freed)
