By Amanda Cooper
LONDON (Reuters) -Global shares fell, while safe havens such as bonds and gold rallied on Tuesday, as investors grew uneasy over mounting tensions between the U.S. and China ahead of talks between the two countries aimed at striking a durable trade deal.
Markets had earlier joined the rebound from Monday’s cash session after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said President Donald Trump remains on track to meet Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea for a two-day summit starting on October 31. But he added fuel to the fire in an interview in the Financial Times where he accused Beijing of trying to damage the global economy.
As negotiations between the U.S. and China intensify, the two nations will begin from Tuesday charging port fees on ocean shipping firms that move everything from toys to crude oil.
‘ESCALATE TO DE-ESCALATE’
“Both Washington and Beijing are posturing before the November summit – escalate to de-escalate,” said Marc Velan, head of investments at Lucerne Asset Management in Singapore. “Neither can afford a trade war heading into U.S. midterms.”
Stocks in Europe, which have hit record highs this month, were down 0.7%, echoing weakness in Asian markets, where technology stocks got hit hard.
Futures on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq sank 1%, suggesting there may not be a repeat of Monday’s rally, but a full reversal also looked unlikely.
“If one looks at the recent history of export controls and charges for ships docking in ports, then it’s been largely interpreted as a path towards negotiation rather than a fresh outbreak of hostilities on the trade front between the U.S. and China,” Investec chief economist Philip Shaw said.
“So yes, there is uncertainty, but you’ve had a huge rally, not just in U.S. stocks, but a lot of global indices as well. And while there are still some question marks over U.S.-China trade friction, I’d interpret the latest sell-off as a bit of a correction rather than a huge stepping-up of investor uncertainty,” he said.
Wall Street’s main indexes had ended as much as 2.2% higher on Monday, led by chipmakers, after Trump struck a more conciliatory tone on trade tensions with China, reversing some of the panic from Friday when Trump announced 100% tariffs on China.
MARKET RISK BAROMETERS FLASH RED
Reflecting the increased investor angst, gold reversed overnight losses and rose 0.7% to $4,140 an ounce, just shy of Tuesday’s new record of $4,179.48. In contrast, bitcoin, which tends to move in line with other risk assets, fell 3.5% to $111,793.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar gained an edge over currencies that typically benefit when investors are feeling confident, such as the pound or the Australian dollar, which fell 0.5% and 0.9% respectively against the greenback.
The yen, which tends to act as a safe haven, strengthened 0.1% to 152.04 against the dollar after Japan’s finance minister said the country needs a new economic strategy that deals with inflation rather than deflation.
The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond was 4.02%, down 3 basis points. The U.S. bond market was closed on Monday for a public holiday.
Two-year yields, which are far more responsive to shifts in expectations for U.S. interest rates, were down 4.6 bps at 3.48%, having fallen 12 bps since Friday, marking their largest two-day fall since early August.
Analysts at Danske Bank said any escalation in the trade war would only increase the likelihood of the Federal Reserve front-loading planned rate cuts.
Traders fully expect the Fed to cut rates this month and into next year to combat a weakening labour market.
The euro dipped 0.1% to $1.1554 after French President Emmanuel Macron rejected calls to resign on Monday, as his latest government was threatened by two no-confidence motions.
Brent crude fell 1.7% to $62.63 per barrel after an OPEC report showed world oil supply is expected to closely match demand next year, a contrast from last month’s outlook, which projected a shortfall.
(Additional reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter in Singapore; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Shri Navaratnam, Sam Holmes and Gareth Jones)
