Gold scales record high as rate cut bets, US government shutdown boost demand

By Noel John and John Biju

(Reuters) -Gold prices hit a fresh record high on Thursday, buoyed by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this month and safe-haven demand amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. 

Spot gold was up 0.6% at $3,887 per ounce by 09:38 a.m. ET (1011 GMT), after hitting a record high of $3,896.49 earlier in the session. 

U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $3,911.80.

Gold, viewed as a safe-haven asset during times of political and economic uncertainty, thrives in a low-interest-rate environment. It has risen 48% so far this year.

“People are waiting for dips (in gold prices) and buying them up… with the government being shut down, the least path of resistance for gold is to the upside,” said RJO Futures market strategist Bob Haberkorn.

The U.S. government shutdown extended to a second day on Thursday, threatening thousands of federal jobs and potentially delaying key economic data releases, including the closely watched non-farm payrolls (NFP) report due Friday. The weekly jobless claims report, a key gauge of labor market health that was due on Thursday, was also not released.

Wednesday’s ADP National Employment Report showed that U.S. private employment shrank by 32,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 3,000 decline in August. 

Traders are pricing in a near-certain 25-bps interest rate cut this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“With trade tensions and tariffs shaping the global landscape, and with geopolitical hotspots showing little sign of resolution, the environment remains supportive for safe-haven demand. Central banks are unlikely to step back from their buying programmes, particularly given the long-term diversification strategies now in place,” StoneX said in a note on Thursday.

Gold remains Goldman Sachs’ highest-conviction long commodity recommendation, the bank said in a note on Wednesday, adding that upside risks to its $4,000 per ounce mid-2026 and $4,300/oz December 2026 gold price forecast have intensified.

Elsewhere, spot silver rose 0.8% to $47.70 per ounce, platinum climbed 1.4% to $1,579.05 and palladium was flat at $1,244.75.

(Reporting by Noel John and John Biju in Bengaluru; Editing by Leroy Leo)

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