By Marc Jones
LONDON (Reuters) – Global shares stalled on Thursday as bond yields inched higher ahead of a raft of appearances from Federal Reserve officials that traders hope will offer greater clarity on how far and fast U.S. interest rates will drop.
At least seven Fed officials are due to speak later, while there is also a reading of U.S. second-quarter GDP and weekly jobless claims ahead of what will be even more closely watched inflation data on Friday.
Wall Street looked set to open fractionally lower [.N] in line with both Europe and Asia’s moves on the day with investors locking in some of the worldwide rally that has seen global stocks score nine record highs already this month.
Oil prices eased too, having surged over 2% on Wednesday after a surprise drop in U.S. crude inventories and amid ongoing questions around Iraqi, Venezuelan and Russian supply.
Safe-haven gold, which tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment, was shuffling back toward its latest record high of $3,790 an ounce set earlier in the week.
Charles Schwab’s UK Managing Director Richard Flynn said investors have had a warning shot this week about equity market valuations from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who described them as “fairly highly valued”.
“For retail investors there are a few more reasons to be concerned about equities at the moment than be confident,” Flynn said, adding that the sharp rise in share prices in recent years has left many with risk profiles more exposed than normal.
YEN WOBBLE
In foreign exchange markets, the dollar index held onto overnight gains at 97.82. That left yen bulls in a spot of bother after some piled into long yen positions after the Bank of Japan’s hawkish hold on policy last week.
“A lot of guys, whether they’re macro or discretionary, have been on the wrong foot looking for dollar/yen to trade lower and that dollar/yen move would certainly be causing some concerns,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG.
That spilled into yen crosses, with the Swiss franc hitting an all-time high on the Japanese currency and the euro hovering at over a one-year peak at 174.66, just below a record top of 175.90.
The Swiss National Bank also played its part as it held interest rates at zero on Thursday in its first pause since late 2023.
SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has repeatedly said there are high hurdles to reintroducing a negative interest rate, a policy which sparked concerns from savers and pension funds when used from December 2014 to September 2022.
However, some analysts believe it will have to go lower in due course.
“We do not think that this is the end of the rate-cutting cycle,” said Adrian Prettejohn, Europe economist at Capital Economics, explaining that Swiss inflation was likely to average around zero next year.
ASIA TAKES A BREATHER
Asian shares had also taken a breather overnight after a strong rally in many of the major markets there this year.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan slipped 0.4%, having rallied over 5% for the month and 9% for the quarter. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.3%, after jumping 7% for the month and 13% for the quarter.
Chinese shares continue to outperform, with blue chips 0.6% higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dipping 0.2%. Chinese tech shares are up for the eighth straight week, the longest winning streak on record on AI optimism.
The Treasuries market see-sawed as markets absorbed a huge amount of corporate and government bond supply. The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield was flat at 4.1408%, having risen 3 basis points overnight, reversing Monday’s fall.
The Treasury Department will also auction $44 billion in seven-year notes later, following auctions of five-year and two-year notes earlier in the week.
(Additional reporting by Stella Qiu in Sydney; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)
