RABAT (Reuters) -Morocco’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% on Tuesday, citing persistent global and domestic uncertainties.
Trade tensions, conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, and the impact of water stress on Morocco’s crops continue to weigh on the economic outlook, the bank said in a statement following its quarterly board meeting.
Inflation is expected to average 1% this year, stable versus last year, before picking up to 1.9% in 2026, the bank said.
It projected economic growth of 4.6% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, up from 3.8% in 2024. The forecasts assume a wheat harvest of 5 million tons in 2026, and 4.13 million tons this year.
The current account deficit is expected to shrink to 2% of GDP in 2026, from an estimated 2.3% this year, on the back of a drop in energy imports and higher exports of automotive goods, phosphates and derivatives.
“Trade momentum is expected to continue in the medium term, with the impact of recent U.S. tariff measures likely to remain limited,” the bank said.
Morocco’s foreign exchange reserves are expected to increase to 434.5 billion dirhams ($48 billion) next year, from 418 billion dirhams in 2025, enough to cover 5.5 months of imports.
The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow to 3.4% of GDP in 2026, from 3.9% this year, as rising tax revenues help offset increased public investment spending, the bank said.
(Reporting by Ahmed EljechtimiEditing by Mark Potter)
