(Reuters) – About 10 countries including Australia, Belgium, Britain and Canada are expected to formally recognise an independent Palestinian state on Monday at a summit before the annual leaders’ gathering at the U.N. General Assembly.
What would that mean for the Palestinians and Israel?
WHAT IS THE STATUS OF PALESTINIAN STATEHOOD NOW?
The Palestine Liberation Organization declared an independent Palestinian state in 1988, and most of the global South quickly recognised it. Today, 147 of the 193 U.N. member states have done so – most recently Mexico, in January.
Israel’s main ally, the United States, has long said it will recognise a Palestinian state, but only after the Palestinians agree with Israel on a “two-state solution”. Until recent weeks, the major European powers shared this position.
However, no such negotiations have been held since 2014, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has now said there will never be a Palestinian state.
A delegation representing the State of Palestine has observer status at the United Nations – but no voting rights. No matter how many countries recognise Palestinian independence, full U.N. membership would require approval by the Security Council, where Washington has a veto.
Palestinian diplomatic missions worldwide are controlled by the Palestinian Authority, which is recognised internationally as representing the Palestinian people.
The PA, led by President Mahmoud Abbas, exercises limited self-rule in parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank under agreements with Israel. It issues Palestinian passports and runs the Palestinian health and education systems.
The Gaza Strip has been administered by the Hamas militant group since 2007, when it drove out Abbas’s Fatah movement after a brief civil war, although the PA still funds many salaries.
Most major powers, with the exception of the U.S. since President Donald Trump moved its embassy to Jerusalem, have their main diplomatic missions in Tel Aviv because they do not recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital.
However, about 40 have consular offices in Ramallah in the West Bank, or in East Jerusalem – an area whose annexation by Israel is not internationally recognised, which the Palestinians want as their capital.
They include China, Russia, Japan, Germany, Canada, Denmark, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia and South Africa.
Countries planning to recognise a Palestinian state have not said what difference that would make to their diplomatic representation.
WHO IS PROMISING TO RECOGNISE PALESTINE AND WHY?
Britain, France, Canada, Australia and Belgium have all said they will recognise a Palestinian state around the time of the U.N. General Assembly this month, although London said it could hold back if Israel were to take steps to ease the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and commit to a long-term peace process.
The countries say these moves are intended to put pressure on Israel to end its devastating assault on Gaza, curtail the building of new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank and recommit to a peace process with the Palestinians.
French President Emmanuel Macron, the first leader of a major Western power to endorse recognition, said the move would be accompanied by a commitment by the PA to enact reforms, which would improve Palestinian governance and make it a more credible partner for the post-war administration of Gaza.
WHAT HAS RECOGNITION MEANT IN PRACTICE?
Those who see recognition as a mere gesture point to the limited influence in the conflict of countries such as China, India, Russia and many Arab states that recognised Palestinian independence decades ago.
Without a full seat at the U.N. or control of its own borders, the Palestinian Authority has only limited ability to conduct bilateral relations. There are no formal embassies in Palestinian territory, and countries cannot freely send diplomats there.
Israel restricts access for goods, investment and educational or cultural exchanges. There are no Palestinian airports. The landlocked West Bank can be reached only through Israel or through the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan, and Israel controls all access to the Gaza Strip.
Still, countries planning recognition and the PA itself say it would be more than an empty gesture.
The Palestinian ambassador to Britain, Husam Zomlot, said it could lead to partnerships between entities on an equal footing.
It might also force countries to review aspects of their relationships with Israel, said Vincent Fean, a former British consul-general in Jerusalem.
In Britain’s case, this might result in banning products that come from Israeli settlements in occupied Palestinian territories, he said, even though the practical impact on the Israeli economy would be minimal.
HOW HAVE ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES REACTED?
Israel, facing a global outcry over its conduct in the Gaza war, says recognition would reward Hamas for the attacks that precipitated the war in October 2023.
After decades of being formally committed to a peace process ending in Palestinian independence, Israel is now run by its most far-right government, including parties sworn to make it impossible for the Palestinians ever to gain a state.
Netanyahu says Israel will never give up ultimate security control of Gaza or the West Bank.
The United States strongly opposes the recognition moves by its European allies. It has responded by imposing sanctions on Palestinian officials, including blocking Abbas and other PA figures from attending the U.N. General Assembly by denying and revoking visas.
(Reporting by Kate Holton in London, Mohamed Ezz and Alexander Dziadosz in Cairo, James Pomfret in Beijing Ahmed Rasheed in Baghdad, Ali Sawafta in Ramallah and Nidal al-Mughrabi in Gaza; Writing by Michael Georgy; Editing by Peter Graff and Kevin Liffey)
